African countries are expected to raise about $155 billion in long-term commercial debt in 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings. That figure is 10% higher than the amount borrowed in 2025 and shows that many governments are preparing for bigger funding needs next year.
The expected rise in borrowing is mainly tied to two major pressures. First, several countries need fresh funds to refinance old debt that is already due. Second, governments are also facing wider fiscal demands as they try to fund budgets, support growth, and manage public spending.
S&P said Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco are likely to lead the borrowing across the continent in 2026. These three countries are expected to issue the most debt because of the size of their economies and their stronger access to international capital markets.
South Africa’s borrowing plans are linked to refinancing existing debt and funding government programmes already captured in its budget. Egypt is expected to keep borrowing to support infrastructure spending and help steady its public finances. Morocco, on its part, is using its stronger fiscal position to back industrial expansion and development projects.
With this trend, Africa’s total outstanding sovereign commercial debt is expected to rise above $1.2 trillion by the end of 2026. That would be equal to roughly half of the continent’s total economic output, showing how important debt has become in funding African economies.
One reason some countries are increasing commercial borrowing is that external financing conditions have improved. Lower borrowing costs in global markets can make it easier and cheaper for governments to refinance foreign-currency debt. For bigger economies with market, this some relief at a time when repayment pressure remains high.
Still, the picture is not the same across the continent. While countries like South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco can tap international markets more easily, many African nations still depend heavily on multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and other development finance institutions.
S&P noted that the annual median debt level for the 27 rated African countries stands at $1.5 billion, which remains lower than what is seen in many other regions.
The report also warned that external risks could change the outlook. Geopolitical tensions, including the impact of the Iran war, could affect borrowing plans or push up costs.
A major concern is the risk to key oil and gas shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there could lead to higher energy prices and put added pressure on African economies.
Countries that rely on fuel imports or spend heavily on fuel subsidies may be more exposed if global oil prices rise sharply. Angola, for example, could face more fiscal strain if energy costs move higher and government spending rises as a result.
For African governments, the challenge is clear. Borrowing remains important for refinancing debt, funding projects, and keeping economies moving. But rising debt levels also mean countries must be more careful with fiscal planning. As 2026 approaches, the focus will not only be on how much African nations borrow, but also on how well they manage the risks that come with it
